During November, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to above average, suggesting the persistence of El Niño. Anomalies increased in the central and east-central Pacific with the latest Niño Index values confirming the strengthening of the El Niño. The ocean temperature in the reference region (Niño 3) remained very strong, exhibiting anomalies ranging from 2.0°C to 2.5°C.

Forecasts predict the persistence of the El Niño during the fall season of 2024, with a 62% probability between April and June 2024. Models also project the intensification of El Niño, with more than 55% chance of persistence between January and March 2024, and a 35% chance of becoming historically strong. Consequently, climatic and meteorological conditions in the Amazon region will be influenced by this phenomenon.

Rainfall in the Amazon Region in November was not significant, resulting in belownormal rainfall anomalies in the central, eastern and southern parts of the region. In other western areas, including Bolivia, Peru and parts of northern Brazil, rainfall was irregular, with slightly above-average precipitation, but still below average to determine the start of the rainy season.

The climate forecast for the next quarter (December 2023 to February 2024) suggests that rainfall estimates improved slightly, reaching normal to near-above-average values in some locations in the region during the month of December. Heavier rains are expected in the upper part of the basin, including the Andean countries of Peru and Bolivia, especially in the second week of December. However, the trend from January 2024 onwards points to significantly below-average values, especially in the central, southern and eastern Amazon region.