In October, sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 4 region recorded an average anomaly of 1.3°C, while in the Niño 3.4 region, the average anomaly was 1.6°C, indicating the persistence of a moderate-intensity El Niño. In the Niño 3 and 1+2 regions, the anomalies were 2.1°C and 2.3°C, respectively, showing a progressive intensification of the El Niño throughout the month.

Forecasts from various international models indicate that by October, El Niño will be strong during the summer of 2023-2024, peaking with sea temperatures around 2°C above average. This phenomenon is expected to continue until at least the fall of 2024, with a probability of 80%. Thereafter, it is expected to weaken, possibly reaching a neutral phase in the Southern Hemisphere by the winter of 2024.

These climate forecasts also suggest that, between November and March 2024, the Amazon region will experience drier conditions, especially in the eastern and northern areas. Notably, an El Niño event of this intensity can trigger significant atmospheric responses, with serious consequences for the Amazon region.